Will Trump Stop Wars ? But How ?
Ukraine and its NATO allies have considered what it would mean if Donald Trump won the U.S. presidency again. Some thought he could be a tougher ally, a strong negotiator, or might bring a fresh approach to end the long, draining conflict in Ukraine. But many knew that these ideas were just hopeful guesses, and the reality could be far different.
If Trump wins, the outlook for Ukraine becomes very uncertain. Trump has said he could end the war “in 24 hours,” but How ? he hasn’t explained.
He’s also criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, saying Zelensky "should never have let that war start" and calling him “one of the greatest salesmen” who receives billions of dollars in aid each time he speaks to Congress.
While Trump’s comments are often exaggerated, they show a clear direction: he wants to end U.S. involvement in Ukraine’s war. This aligns with two things he opposed during his first term – costly American military efforts abroad and actions that anger Russia. For Trump, supporting Ukraine may not be a priority, even though the U.S. military sees the conflict as a way to weaken Russia without risking American lives.
The Kremlin, under Russian President Vladimir Putin, has shown some optimism about Trump’s potential win. Relations between the U.S. and Russia have been tense under President Joe Biden, and some Russian officials believe a Trump presidency could mean less support for Ukraine.
In the meantime, Russia has been positioning forces around key areas in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, aiming to increase pressure on Ukrainian defenses this winter. If Russia succeeds in capturing these areas, it could lead to major cities like Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia becoming more exposed, which would make Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, much more vulnerable.
However, Russia’s military is also facing challenges. Western experts estimate that Russia is losing or injuring up to 1,200 soldiers a day, which is unsustainable without more troops or equipment. Analysts believe that, by next year, Russia may face shortages in armor and ammunition, which could significantly limit its military operations.
Trump is known for being unpredictable, especially with complex issues like foreign conflicts. He often prefers quick solutions, like pulling U.S. troops out of Afghanistan and leaving it to the Taliban, holding a high-profile meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, or authorizing a sudden drone strike on an Iranian commander, Qasem Soleimani. With Ukraine, it’s unclear if he would actually take the time to understand the situation, or if he would simply stop wanting to discuss or spend money on the war altogether.
No matter how fast or slow Trump’s approach might be, the effects will be significant. I remember last December when delays in U.S. military aid hit the morale of Ukrainian troops hard. At that time, some soldiers told me they might have to abandon their positions without that aid, even though they knew the Biden administration still supported them in principle. Now, things may get even tougher for Ukraine. There’s a real chance that while some aid continues to come from the Pentagon and European NATO allies, Trump could take a much less supportive stance toward Ukraine.
Adding to the challenge, Trump would be coming into office at what could be the most dangerous time for Kyiv since the war began. Analysts have noted that in October, Ukraine has been losing territory at a faster rate than usual. They’ve lost small villages, which might not seem crucial on their own, but together these losses represent a setback that makes the eastern part of the country especially vulnerable.
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